The Enlightenment Turned Away:
Right-Wing Radicalism in the United States and Germany
Mara Schlosser, Department of Political Science

INTRODUCTION

DATA

RESULTS

During the last decade, terrorist attacks and plots have increased dramatically
in the United States and Germany, the majority of which have been inspired by
radical right-wing ideologies. I propose that popular concern about immigration
is the strongest indicator of increased right-wing terrorism and that Germany
has been more effective than the United States at responding to the threat of
right-wing terrorism.

These data very clearly support Hypothesis B regarding Germany’s success in
reducing the frequency of right-wing terrorism, but Hypothesis A is only
partially confirmed. There is a clear and strong correlation between public
concern about immigration in Germany and frequency of right-wing attacks; a
similar correlation is present in the United States, but it is much weaker.

Research Question: Why has right-wing terrorism increased simultaneously in
the United States and Germany and what accounts for the countries’ divergent
outcomes in responding to this threat?

Future Research:

Theory: Right-wing terrorism has increased in the United States in Germany due
to public perception that immigration poses a large threat to the country. In
response, Germany has more effectively suppressed right-wing attacks and
plots than the United States due to expansion of its domestic surveillance
program.

• Lethality of attacks
• Terrorism during the pandemic
Source: Global Terrorism Database (GTD), Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS)

• Impact of disinformation and conspiracy theories
• Influence of politicians’ rhetoric on terrorism
• Counterextremism in military and law enforcement

Hypothesis A: The frequency of right-wing terrorism in both the United States
and Germany increases in conjunction with public concern about immigration.

• Free speech implications of Germany’s surveillance policies

Hypothesis B: The frequency of right-wing terrorism in Germany decreases
significantly when the expanded domestic surveillance program is in effect.

• Counterterrorism and national security officials in countries facing high rates
of political violence

Findings important for:

• Policymakers in Congress seeking to reduce the threat of terrorism in the
United States

RESEARCH DESIGN: HYPOTHESIS A
Data counting incidence of right-wing terrorist attacks and plots in the United
States and Germany is compared with public opinion data on what citizens of
each country consider to be “the most important issue facing the country”. This
data is visualized in Figures 1-4.

• Politicians, academics, and media personalities concerned about the
consequences of anti-immigration rhetoric
Source: Global Terrorism Database (GTD), Jared Cohen

REFERENCES

Data Sources: The Global Terrorism Database (GTD), Center for Security and
International Studies (CSIS), Comparative Agendas Project (CAP),
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen E.V.

Cohen, Jared. 2020. “The Violent White Supremacy Issue: Hate by the Numbers.” The
Current. Jigsaw. https://jigsaw.google.com/the-current/white-supremacy/datavisualization/

Dependent Variable: Right-wing terrorism in the U.S. and Germany
Independent Variable: Public opinion in the U.S. and Germany

RESEARCH DESIGN: HYPOTHESIS B
Changes in policy regarding domestic surveillance in Germany are
superimposed onto data counting the frequency of right-wing terrorism.
Represented by a vertical purple line in Figure 2 is a 12% increase in the budget
of the BfV, Germany’s domestic intelligence service (Knight, 2016). Represented
by a vertical orange line in the same figure is implementation of a bill that
dramatically expanded the BfV’s electronic surveillance authorities (Gesley,
2017).

• Law enforcement practitioners seeking to identify motivations of terror
suspects

Source: Gallup, Comparative Agendas Project (CAP)

Data Sources: The Global Terrorism Database (GTD), Deutsche Welle, U.S.
Library of Congress
Dependent Variable: Right-wing terrorism in Germany
Independent Variables: Presence of increased domestic surveillance budget
and authorities
Source: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen E.V.

“Gallup’s Most Important Problem Data.” 2019. The Policy Agendas Project at the
University of Texas at Austin [Data file]. https://www.comparativeagendas.net/
Gesley, Jenny. September 7, 2017. “Germany: Expanded Telecommunications
Surveillance and Online Search Powers.” Global Legal Monitor. U.S. Library of
Congress. https://www.loc.gov/law/foreign-news/article/germany-expandedtelecommunications-surveillance-and-online-search-powers/
Jones, Seth, Catrina Doxsee, and Nicholas Harrington. June 17, 2020. “The Escalating
Terrorism Problem in the United States.” Center for Strategic and International
Studies (CSIS). https://www.csis.org/analysis/escalating-terrorism-problem-unitedstates
Knight, Ben. September 8, 2016. “Germany to Pour Cash Into Mass Surveillance.”
Deutsche Welle. https://p.dw.com/p/1Jybl
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START),
University of Maryland. 2019. The Global Terrorism Database (GTD) [Data file].
https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd
“Weitere wichtige Probleme in Deutschland.” 2021. Forschungsgruppe Wahlen E.V.
[Data File].
https://www.forschungsgruppe.de/Umfragen/Politbarometer/Langzeitentwicklung__Themen_im_Ueberblick/Politik_II/#Probl1