Modeling an Asian hornet (Vespa velutina) invasion in North America

The Asian hornet (Vespa velutina) is a major invasive predator of honeybees. Theoretical ecology techniques were used to give managers insight into a potential invasion, and to allow managers to formulate counter-strategies. An invasion of North America (Canada and the United States) was simulated using the standard, four-stage model of invasion: transportation phase; establishment phase; growth and spread phase; and impact phase. The transportation phase was modeled with pathway analysis. Pathway analysis showed 5.461% of US imports by value, and 9.345% of Canadian imports by value, are potential vectors for invasion. The establishment phase was modeled using niche analysis. Niche analysis showed the western coast and eastern coast of North America, and the southern United States east of the Mississippi River, are highly suitable to V. velutina invasion, while the middle of the continent is inhospitable. All ports (n=24) studied in the United States and Canada were suitable for invasion except Anchorage, AK. Growth and Spread was simulated using a continuous Fisher-Skellam Reaction-Diffusion model, and a discrete Markov model. The continuous model projects a mean nest population of 222.745 nests after ten years, while the discrete model projects a mean nest population of 289.823 nests after ten years. The impact phase was modeled using estimates of losses to agricultural output. Monitoring invasion vectors, and prioritizing certain ports above others, were deemed impractical for managers. The distribution of suitable habitat suggests North American managers have the option, unavailable to managers in Europe and Asia, of containing an invasion to a single coast.